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Recession? Depression?

Safe Money Report -December 1, 2001


It used to be the R-word. Now, it's the D-word that's being bandied about in financial circles. People are no longer asking 'is the economy in a recession?'. The National Bureau of Economic Research answered that question this week with a definitive YES. The recession officially started eight months ago.

Now everybody's talking about how bad the recession will be -- and what role deflation will play. Our answer: The recession will be much worse than most, and deflation will play a very BIG role.

Safe Money subscribers recently received a special bonus issue describing the impact that deflation will have on the economy in this way:

"In every single one of the recessions of the past half century, price deflation was limited to certain regions or commodities. There was no global deflation. So in comparison to the deflation-ridden 1930s, all the recessions in the second half of the 20th century were relatively mild.

"Now, for the first time since the Great Depression, deflation has struck the global economy. We have rampant deflation in Japan and many developing countries.

"In the US, wholesale prices just suffered their worst plunge since the government began keeping track in 1947.

"This deflation is starting to drive corporate profits into the gutter and unemployment into the stratosphere. It will make the economic decline last for years rather than months."

Don't be fooled. Deflation doesn't just mean lower prices, or that the money you have will buy more. It means that the value of your assets will plunge. It means that your salary could be reduced because the company you work for isn't earning as much on its products. Or worse -- you could find yourself unemployed.

The biggest victims of deflation are those individuals and corporations that are deep in debt. Unfortunately, that's 2 million American households, and thousands of private and public companies.

Protect yourself in the coming months by getting out of debt, and dumping investments in financially-strapped companies. Then, brace yourself for a recession that will drag on for MUCH longer than Wall Street is leading you to believe.

Consider this:

* We suspect thousands of companies are manipulating their earnings -- and MANY could end up in the same boat as Enron. Our Corporate Earnings Blacklist lists over 1,500 companies that we suspect of manipulating their earnings because of discrepencies between their cash flow and their actual earnings.

Unfortunately, the Enron debacle may be Only The Beginning ...
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=112901

* The Federal Reserve's beige book revealed that the Fed's rate cuts haven't helped one bit. The Fed's rate-slashing strategy was supposed to lift this economy right out of its doldrums. Eleven months and ten rate cuts later, the economy is sinking even deeper into recession.

The Fed funds rate is down to 2%, and Rate Cuts Still Aren't Helping ...
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=112801

* Consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in November, as US workers watched their jobs vanish and their hopes for a quick economic recovery fade away. At the same time, the stock market keeps inching up.

Similar events happened during the Great Depression and set the stage for one of the deepest stock market declines ever.

Oh my! How Times Haven't Changed ...
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=112701

* When the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US economy has been in a recession since March, the media spun the news to say that this means the recession is probably nearly over. But they don't comprehend the impact that the lethal combination of deflation and debt can have on an economy.

The Recovery Is Hardly In Sight ...
http://www.safemoneyreport.com/home/daily.asp?archive=112601

For all of these stories, visit:
http://www.safemoneyreport.com



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